Even after just nine games of the ‘new’ Premier League season, Manchester City are already sat pretty atop the league table, five points clear of their nearest challengers, and just 1/6 with the bookies to win this seasons English football championship.
The writer predicted pre season that City would win the Premier League at a relative canter and, to date, sees no reason why that premonition is doing nothing but coming true – with goals flowing out of attack and the defense miserly. They already have four different players who have notched up 5 goals in the league so far, and have ten different names on the scoresheet to date. Title pretenders Liverpool have been despatched with embarrassing ease, whilst defending champions Chelsea have had three points taken away from their own stomping ground. Only, surprisingly, Everton have managed to subdue the Sky Blue machine….but with upcoming fixtures that seem, on paper, to be pretty much as straight forward as you like, we feel its just when, not if, City will be officially crowned champions of England.
So lets press fast forward, make a few educated assumptions, and see when they will be able to lift the trophy that seems inevitably theirs.
Although Manchester United have won the Premier League with just 75 points, 90 points is usually the benchmark needed to be pretty sure of being Champions. Only four teams have ever exceeded that and no runner up team has ever acquired that total – so we can be fairly safe to assume 90 points is enough. City have taken 25 points from 9 games – which is on pace to smash the highest points tally recorded so far (95 by Chelsea) into smithereens. But, to get to 90 points, City need 65 points from 31 games – just over 2 points per game – or – another 22 wins from 31 games.
It is pretty impossible to predict the outcome of every game as a win/draw/loss….but of their 31 games, we feel that a record of W20 D8 L3 is perfectly achievable and reasonable, which would give them an overall points tally of 93 points. This of course would be their end tally – and with the average gap between the winners of the Premier League and the runners up team being around 7 points (over last 12 years), once they hit 86 points, that should be enough to pop the champagne and organise the bus tours.
Once the title is won, it is perfectly normal for a team to drop off some – field a few youngsters and fringe players – make sure players have played enough games to be eligible for a medal – and generally play with a little less intensity and focus than usual, the job having been done. It is also nothing like beyond the realms of possibility that City may well have Champions League matches to play in through late April/early May – as well as FA Cup semi finals and finals to deal with.
So City will want to hit this 86 point milestone early….maybe even as soon as with five…six games to go? 7 points from their final 6 games isn’t overly unreasonable, considering the above…..so we will stick our next out and suggest that the sixth game from home will be the game that clinches the Premier League title for Manchester City – so lets check them out, in reverse order :
- 13/5/18 – Southampton (A) (Last League Game of Season)
- 5/5/18 – Huddersfield Town (H)
28/4/18 – West Ham Utd (A) - 21/4/18 – Swansea City (H)
- 14/4/18 – Tottenham Hotspur (A)
- 7/4/18 – Manchester United (H)
So there you have it….we feel that Manchester City will clinch the 2017/18 Premier League championship at home to Manchester United.
Do we think there will be many an empty seat at the Etihad Stadium for that game???
Check back here next April to be reminded where you heard it first!!!!
DO YOU AGREE WITH OUR PREDICTION? WILL CITY EVEN WIN THE TITLE? LET US KNOW IN THE COMMENTS SECTION BELOW!!!
