Manchester City have been calculated as the English Premier League team with the best probability of winning the Champions League. Pep Guardiola’s side have already qualified for the round of sixteen thanks to Wednesday night’s 4-2 win over Napoli.
Can a Premier League team win the Champions League?
Website FiveThirtyEight has crunched the numbers after four match days in this season’s Champions League. The website has deemed Barcelona as having the best probability of winning the tournament. The Catalan team have a 21% chance of winning the competition. Barcelona also have a 38% chance of making the final in Kiev.
Manchester City have the highest probability of any Premier League team. The Citizens are 11% likely to win the cup final, and have a 22% chance of making it to Kiev. Wednesday night’s win over Napoli once again showed the strength Guardiola has in his team. Manchester City have qualified for the knockout round and have a probability of 67% to make the quarterfinals, according to FiveThirtyEight.
What about the rest of the Premier League teams?
Manchester City have the fifth best probability to win the Champions League. Meanwhile, Tottenham and Manchester United are seventh and eighth, respectively. Supporters of both clubs won’t be happy to find out that Spurs and the Red Devils have a 5% and 4% chance, respectively, to raise the cup in Kiev. Both Chelsea and Liverpool have been calculated at 2% probability of winning the final.
Supporters might not be happy with the forecasts made by FiveThirtyEight. The website calculates a team’s chances based on a power index created by the website.
Manchester City have the highest rating of any Premier League team in the website’s Soccer Power Index. Of course, Barcelona are first.
Are the calculations accurate?
Many fans will feel that the calculations are only reaffirming what must supporters know. However, the Champions League may not be so easy to forecast once the tournament gets to the knockout stages.
